Friday, January 25, 2008

John C. Dvorak got it probably right...

The battering of Apple's stock is beyond any rational link to the recent drop of the rest of the market. It's also unique that it happened right after MWSF when normally every year exactly the opposite happens. It's all about the disappointment his Jobness brought to his religiously fanatic Mac addicts by not announcing something new and really sexy.

John C. Dvorak, a cranky critic active in the ICT Industry since the last century (I remember his PC magazine articles since the late eighties) posted a visionary blog in MarketWatch about Apple's dramatic drop that brought down the company value by more than 50 Billion USD compared to its December 2007 highs.

What does this mean then? I fear we'll all have to wait some serious time to see the stock coming back (if ever) to its recent December highs. You see, the problem is that right now investor emotion stands in the way of investor logic. The company's fundamentals more than justify a return to previous highs; however investor emotion and the urge to payback Apple management and his Jobness in particular (for not mentioning this one last thing) keeps the stock in a continuous downward trend. The worst we ever witnessed for this stock.

As an example, today, while Apple was gaining in pre-market and analysts have been talking about building new positions, it all turned out the other way: a tech market upbeat momentum was supposed to build due to Microsoft's stellar quarterly performance... but never came - Microsoft is no more what it used to be (even with its 60 billion annual revenue). Eventually AAPL lost again more than 4% for the day. Just like this... I hope this trend does something to those Apple executives with their fat bonuses and somebody emerges with some sort of remedy strategy... before it gets too late for anything.

1 comment:

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